By Arlan Brucal, Kanako Nannichi & Francisco Aguilar Cisneros

In December 2024, in Hanoi, the recently regarded world’s first $5 trillion company, NVIDIA, signed an agreement with the government of Viet Nam to build the Viet Nam Research and Development Center. The research and development (R&D) facility will serve as a platform for NVIDIA to expand its partnerships with Viet Nam’s top tech firms and support the country in training talent for developing artificial intelligence (AI) and digital infrastructure.


Not far away, Viet Nam’s auto manufacturer Kim Long Motor is partnering with China’s BYD to build a $130 million electric‑vehicle battery plant on about 4.4 hectares in central Viet Nam. Together, these recent developments in Viet Nam mirror a broader shift in global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) toward sectors that drive both technological innovation and sustainable, low-carbon growth. Importantly, they may be also signaling an impending reconfiguration of job creation: one that may expand opportunities, but unevenly across economies.


Data from the Financial Times’ fDi Markets reveal that announced greenfield investments in climate and energy transition surged steadily over the past several years, reaching a peak in 2023 at US$600 billion (figure 1). Over this period, the global share of such investments increased from 12 % in 2016 to 42 % in 2023, a shift largely associated with the expansion of projected in renewable energy and clean technologies. 

Greenfield foreign direct investment is increasingly concentrated in digital technologies and energy transition projects, reshaping global investment patterns. / Image: Shutterstock


Meanwhile, digital investments encompassing cutting-edge areas such as AI and cloud computing, have shown a robust upward trajectory, with its share growing from 9 % in 2016 to 38 % in 2025.  


But FDI growth is not happening evenly around the world; rather, it’s a story of a sharp contrast, both in terms of regions and sectors. Advanced economies in North America, Europe and East Asia dominate in total investment share, often driven by capital-intensive projects in digital technology and energy (figure 2).


In fact, Emerging Markets & Developing Economies (EMDEs) average share of announced FDI decrease from 58% to 47% in 2021-2025 compared to the previous 5 years, suggesting FDI is shifting towards advanced economies, and competition has become more intense in recent years. Emerging markets such as the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan (MENAAP) region, are seeing explosive growth rates in energy transition investments, though their performance in digital technology remains small.


Emerging economies in Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe & Central Asia are playing catch-up in digital technology, with lower investment shares and growth; similar to South Asia for climate and energy transition. Bottom line? FDI is pouring into select hotspots, leaving many countries, especially emerging and developing ones, scrambling to keep pace in the race to host investors in what is referred to as disruptive technologies.

Meanwhile, EMDEs are no longer just FDI destinations, but they are becoming sources or connectors of capital across the Global South. In both digital and climate-related investments, several EMDE regions show disproportionately stronger growth in outbound greenfield investments.


East Asia and the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan (MENAAP) region stand out in digital, while the MENAAP region, Europe & Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa lead in climate. Together with the previous results on inflows, these regions appear to act as regional hubs that channel investments to other developing markets. It is also worth noting that the shift is powered by few presumably mega-projects, evidence of slow but deepening web of South-South FDI. 

The recent shifts in greenfield FDI will shape jobs and growth sooner than later. Implicitly, what these trends show is that investors are clearly betting on future demand, not current income, channeling capital into digital infrastructure and low-carbon economy whose payoffs are still uncertain, non-traditional, and tied to markets that are still being formed. That raises the stakes: returns hinge on data flows, power grids, skills and policies catching up fast.


The upside is significant: new jobs, new capabilities, and new growth paths; but the risks are real, from stranded assets to widening gaps between economies that can absorb these investments and those that cannot. Clearly, FDI is no longer just following growth; it is trying to create it.


Source: World Bank Group