Solar mini-grids could electrify a billion people by 2030 —World Bank

By Nomvuyo Tena
A new handbook calls on the power and energy industry to put their weight behind the solar mini-grids and their potential to power millions.

Around 733 million people – mostly in sub-Saharan Africa – still lack access to electricity. The pace of electrification has slowed down in recent years, because of the difficulties in reaching the remotest and most vulnerable populations, as well as the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the current rate of progress, 670 million people will remain without electricity by 2030.

Solar mini-grids can provide high-quality uninterrupted electricity to nearly half a billion people in unpowered or underserved communities and be a least-cost solution to close the energy access gap by 2030. But to realise the full potential of solar mini-grids, governments and industry must work together to systemically identify mini-grid opportunities, continue to drive costs down and overcome barriers to financing, says the World Bank.

Essakane hybrid power plant 15 MWp solar PV power plant in Essakane, Burkina Faso. The solar PV plant will be built next to a 55 MW Wärtsilä power plant currently running on heavy fuel oil, Africa’s largest engine-solar PV hybrid power plant.

“Now more than ever, solar mini-grids are a core solution for closing the energy access gap,” said Riccardo Puliti, Infrastructure Vice President at the World Bank. “The World Bank has been scaling up its support to mini-grids as part of helping countries develop comprehensive electrification programs.

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“With $1.4 billion across 30 countries, our commitments to mini-grids represent about one-quarter of total investment in mini-grids by the public and private sector in our client countries.

“To realise mini-grids’ full potential to connect half a billion people by 2030, several actions are needed, such as incorporating mini-grids into national electrification plans and devising financing solutions adapted to mini-grid projects’ risk profiles,” explained Puliti.

Solar mini-grids now least-cost way to provide energy access
The deployment of solar mini-grids has seen an important acceleration, from around 50 per country per year in 2018 to more than 150 per country per year today, particularly in countries with the lowest rates of access to electricity. This is the result of falling costs of key components, the introduction of new digital solutions, a large and expanding cohort of highly capable mini-grid developers and growing economies of scale.

Solar mini-grids have become the least-cost way to bring high-quality 24/7 electricity to towns and cities off the grid or experiencing regular power cuts. The cost of electricity generated by solar mini-grids has gone down from $0.55/kWh in 2018 to $0.38/kWh today.

Of reference
Minigrids sector growing energy in Africa access despite regulatory hurdles
Modern solar mini-grids now provide enough electricity for life-changing electric appliances, such as refrigerators, welders, milling machines or e-vehicles. Mini-grid operators can manage their systems remotely, and paid smart meters enable customers to pay as they use the electricity. Connecting 490 million people to solar mini-grids would avoid 1.2 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions.

Further acceleration is needed, however, to meet Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7). Powering 490 million people by 2030 will require the construction of more than 217,000 mini-grids at a cumulative cost of $127 billion. At current pace, only 44,800 new mini-grids serving 80 million people will be built by 2030 at a total investment cost of $37bn.

Achieving universal electrification
Produced by the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP), the new book, Mini Grids for Half a Billion people: Market Outlook and Handbook for Decision Makers, identifies five market drivers to set the mini-grid sector on a trajectory to achieve full market potential and universal electrification:
*Reducing the cost of electricity from solar hybrid mini-grids to $0.20/kWh by 2030, which would put life-changing power in the hands of half a billion people for just $10 per month
*Increasing the pace of deployment to 2,000 mini-grids per country per year, by building portfolios of modern mini-grids instead of one-off projects.
*Providing superior-quality service to customers and communities by providing reliable electricity for 3 million income-generating appliances and machines and 200,000 schools and clinics.
*Leveraging development partner funding and government investment to “crowd in” private-sector finance, raising $127bn in cumulative investment from all sources for mini-grids by 2030.
*Establishing enabling mini-grid business environments in key access-deficit countries through light-handed and adaptive regulations, supportive policies, and reductions in bureaucratic red tape.
*The Mini Grids for Half a Billion people: Market Outlook and Handbook for Decision Makers handbook is the World Bank’s most comprehensive and authoritative publication on mini-grids to date.

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