By Niyi Akinnaso
Energy is a shorthand for various sources of power, such as electricity, petrol, diesel, kerosene, gas, solar and other renewable energy sources. One of the major deprivations fueling world-wide poverty is lack of access to regular and affordable energy. Other deprivations include lack of access to healthcare, education, and meaningful income. These deprivations are rampant in Nigeria, where at least 46 percent of the population is rated as poor. That’s at least 104 million people, according to recent World Bank estimates. Majority of them have limited or no access to any source of energy beyond age-old firewood.
Unfortunately, however, energy deprivation has not been given due attention, because it is either tucked away under living standards along with housing and drinking water or considered as part of infrastructure, where the focus is often on roads and bridges. Yet, energy, especially electricity, is universally acknowledged as the most potent catalyst for economic development and for lifting people out of poverty. It is needed for operating factories; for transporting crops and other goods; for powering or charging modern technologies of production and communication; for illuminating homes and offices, refrigerating foods, and operating household appliances; for powering schools, hospitals, financial institutions, and media houses, and so on.
For years, the Federal Government has been struggling to improve the infrastructure, generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity with minimal success. It is universally acknowledged that corruption has repeatedly dampened the efforts. That’s why, today, the maximum electric power generation capacity the government could boast of is only about 14,000 megawatts.
However, with grid collapse every now and then, only about 5,000 megawatts of this capacity has ever been in use. This is abysmally low for a population of over 200 million. The result is that nearly half of the population, living mostly in rural areas, has no access at all to electricity at all. Of those who have access to electricity, about 80 percent do not a supply of more than 10 hours a day. This implies that most households and businesses do not have access to electricity for more than 10 hours a day.
If, according to international standards, a population of 1 million people needs at least 1,000 megawatts of electricity, then Nigeria needs at least 200,000 megawatts of electricity for its present population. Good planning would require that this number be doubled in less than 30 years, when the country’s population is also expected to have doubled.
Right now, the United States, our model country for the constitution and structure of government, has a generating capacity of about 1.3 million megawatts of electricity for a population of less than 345 million people. The electric grid in the country has been described as an engineering marvel: It has more than 9,200 electric generating units, producing more than 1 million megawatts of generating capacity connected to more than 600,000 miles of transmission lines! What is more, the largest source of electric power in the United States is gas. This is a commodity we produce in large quantities but have failed to properly harness it. Instead, we flare most of it!
There are at least three reasons Nigerians have been complacent with low electric power output. First, those who can afford it find an alternative power supply in diesel- or petrol-fueled generators and/or solar powered backup units, while others limit their energy consumption to kerosene, cooking gas, and, of course, raw firewood, all used for cooking.
However, with a steep rise in the cost of petroleum products, due to the removal of fuel subsidy and multiple exchange rates, many households are finding it difficult, if not impossible, to keep up, while many businesses, including manufacturing industries, are closing down. A hotelier in Lagos expressed doubts about keeping up with diesel costs to power generators, because of the high cost of diesel and continued electric power outage, sometimes for as long as three or four days in a row!
Second, Nigerians from about age 45 and upwards have been used to hard times. Whether it was the Electric Corporation of Nigeria, Nigeria Electric Power Authority, or Power Holding Company of Nigeria, epileptic or no power supply had been their lot. For most of them now, it is a case of nothing is new under the sun. However, the younger generation, mostly their own children, are more intolerant and restive. As this restive population grows in number and in age, the government can expect a revolution, if the present trend of poor electric power supply persists. Here, for example, is what a 32-year-old welder told me: “Sir, I changed from welder to okada rider when my generator packed up after one heavy job. I was using it everyday for two years. Now, I don’t get enough riders to make profit and petrol price is killing us. Now I want to go back to welding, but I can’t because I can no longer afford to buy and fuel a generator. The one I bought for 180,000 three years ago is not about 400,000. Where can I find that kind of money? If they (government) don’t do something about light (electricity), in two or three years, the youths will rise. The suffering is too much.”
Another reason for complacency is the periodic distribution of palliatives by federal, state, and local governments as well as by individual politicians, especially those currying favour for the next round of elections. But palliatives only provide temporary cushions for the poor in harsh economic times. They do not fix the energy deficits.
That’s why what manufacturers need to hear the most from the Minister of Trade, Industry and Investments, Doris Uzoka-Anite, during her ongoing tour of selected manufacturing industries, are assurances of stable, regular, and affordable electric power supply.
Yet, we know that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is aware of the shortcomings of electricity supply and has robust plans for power generation and power sector reform in the country (see Renewed Hope 2023, pages 30-32). That’s why he acknowledged that “Our economy is constrained by our inability to generate, transmit and distribute power efficiently” (page 30). He has taken several measures to improve on the power situation. For example, he recently signed an agreement with the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to have Siemens inject 12,000 megawatts of electricity into the national grid. Regulations are relaxed for state and local governments as well as the private sector to supplement the government’s Rural Electrification Project in generating electricity for rural areas. Furthermore, the presidency and the National Assembly are working on reforming the regulatory and governance structure of the nation’s power sector.
But we have heard many of these ideas before, including contracts with Siemens by previous administrations. The expectation is that this one will be different, by producing desired results.
