By Saniya Garyali
OPEC governor Ademola Adeyemi-Bero explains Nigeria First policy as the African producer looks to drive production back above 2m b/d and play crucial role in OPEC
Nigeria is targeting crude output of more than 2m b/d in the near term, aiming to demonstrate sustained capacity and secure a higher OPEC quota. State-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) and the country’s independent players are aligning around a ‘Nigeria First’ approach, strengthening cooperation across the sector while reinforcing Nigeria’s position as a voice of balance within OPEC.
That was the overarching message Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, Nigeria’s OPEC governor, conveyed in an interview with Petroleum Economist at an executive dinner hosted by law firm Hunton Andrews Kurth in London to mark the close of the Association of International Energy Negotiators’ NOC Conference, a premier gathering of more than 30 NOCs, government officials and private sector partners.
Where do you see Nigeria’s oil production in the next couple of years? And what are the biggest opportunities and threats to output?
Nigeria has attained a production level of about 1.7–1.8m b/d. The government has an aspiration to take it to 2–2.5m b/d and push to 3m b/d if it can.
Thinking in the short term—and we always have to look at the short term—I think Nigeria will get into 2m b/d. And getting to 2.5m b/d as we turn the decade is not out of the question. Of course, our [OPEC] quota does not support that. But we are working to also demonstrate that we have the capacity so our quota goes up for the size of the country, what it needs, and the role oil and gas can play. Nigeria needs to be at 2–2.5m b/d. When you look at the government’s aspirations and all the things they require, they need to be in that range.
“What the government has to do now is make sure it has a diversified sector”
Nigeria has the resources. It now has a diversified sector. It needs to attract a lot of funding and financing, but there is no reason why it cannot get to that level. And I think that is the driver for everybody.
We are a member of OPEC, and I always like to say that we want to always be compliant with that quota. That is very important for us to be a responsible member of the group. But then we have to balance between the aspirations. And once we can demonstrate that capacity, I do not see why we will not be able to attain the quotas we need to meet the requirements of the country.
The second part of the question was what the challenges are that I see. Why did we diminish our production levels over the last five, six or seven years? I can attribute it to maybe two or three factors: we had the crisis in the Niger Delta and pipelines being lost. The government has done a significant amount of work in engaging and putting infrastructure in place. And that is yielding results for now. Availability from the pipelines is now higher than 90–95%
We have to continue to do what we are doing well to sustain that level. You have to manage the social issue as well—that is one factor. The other factor people do not see is that COVID happened. And just when COVID happened, the international companies were also thinking of exiting.
When they started thinking of divesting, what is the other thing that happened? They were not investing for growth. They were essentially just maintaining production, maintaining infrastructure. So that does not grow anything; things just decline. That dynamic led to a drop in a diminishing resource that needs to be fed with capital. Production dropped.
In the last year, the government has approved all the divestments. You have the [formation of domestic consortium] Renaissance African Energy [which acquired Shell’s onshore Nigeria assets in March 2025, and [Nigerian independent player] Seplat—the wonders of this world—and you begin to see that turnaround. Renaissance has added 100,000b/d in about four months. Seplat are doing the same. The risk we had was the social dimension of the Niger Delta, which we are curing. What the government has to do now is make sure it has a diversified sector.
There is going to be impetus for growth. The majors are going to their preferred domain of deep water and integrated gas, [and there are FIDs coming through]. [For example,] Bunga North and Bunga Southwest will come. TotalEnergies will do this. So you are having FIDs that were stalled because of [the delays to the Petroleum Industry Bill]. And now they are coming through because the government is also putting in improved fiscal terms and improved fiscal frameworks that allow deep water to be more attractive for investment. I have confidence that, once all of these things start to come together, production growth in the short-to-medium term will happen.
How do you see the relationship between the independents in Nigeria and the NNPC evolving?
I do not see a major change between the independents who are in joint ventures with NNPC compared with when the IOCs were in. So the [Joint Operating Agreement], the Petroleum Agreement, and the [Petroleum Industry Act]—they are all consistent. So, I do not see a big change there.
NNPC is going through its own transition. It is now a limited liability company. It is looking at its portfolio. What does it keep? What does it divest? It needs to raise a lot of capital. The amount of capital we need for achieving this production growth is in excess of $20–30b. You do not raise that by cash flow alone. You are going to need additional injection.
To your point, the relationship is there. But I think the good part of that relationship is, you have got two parties: the independents and the NOC, [which are focused on Nigeria]. I am not saying the IOCs were not, but they were driven by their global requirements. They had a global portfolio, and they said, this time, it is not time to invest in Nigeria; so, ExxonMobil, for example, says we would rather go to Ghana.
We also believe that we can create more value out of the molecules of oil and gas that we have. Processing that oil and gas, and going into LPG, CNG and power is where that alignment is. And that is the positive side of that interaction.
Nigeria is a leading voice in OPEC, especially for Africa. How do you see Nigeria’s role evolving when it comes to membership within OPEC?
We are a long-time member of OPEC. We will always be. What you have to ask yourself is, for your resources, what are the drivers of value? And I think what Nigeria has clearly said is that it wants a stable, sustainable oil price, so that it can project the framework of its national development.
Second, it needs to be able to grow that production. But what Nigeria understands is that we cannot grow production when the price is flat. We are losing value. When you take that narrative, it fits the OPEC narrative firmly, which is supply and demand—manage that to get the price at a sustainable level that works for everybody, and be part of a group that is managing the supply end. And work the demand based on the vagaries of global dimensions. So, Nigeria’s aspirations fit the aspirations of, or the objectives of, OPEC.
You talk about a leadership role. We have been in OPEC a long time. We have sustained ourselves through the dynamics of exits of some countries and all of that. And I think we can see ourselves as a voice of balance and reason. And where there are misalignments, we feel that we have got the experience and the ability to bring some of that to bear. And I think we are respected and we are compliant, to most extents, in what OPEC does. So, there is an alignment, and we see ourselves with them over the long term.
And in my role as OPEC governor, I see how we can continue to build that alignment and sustain it.
Source: Petroleum Economist
