African countries to dramatically speed up solar panels

In 2024, African countries commissioned 2.4 GW of solar panels, of which South Africa accounted for 46%, Egypt – for 29%, and all other countries including Nigeria, Zambia and Angola – for 25%. In the years immediately ahead, the sector development pace will be accelerated.

According to the forecast by Global Solar Council, between 2025 and 2028 23 GW of solar panels will be commissioned in the region, resulting in more than doubling the current installed capacity.

The sector will be supported by the process of technologies getting cheaper.

According to the estimate of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the worldwide average cost of solar panel commissioning between 2010 and 2023 dropped by 86% (down to USD 758 per 1 MW), and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) demonstrated more than 10 times reduction (from USD 0.46 down to USD 0.04 per KWh).

A similar trend was observed for energy storage systems, which are often used together with PV-modules: the average price of lithium-ion batteries and cells between 2014 and 2023 was reduced more than 5 times (from USD 715 down to USD 144 per KWh).

The projects already being at the implementation stage will be making a significant portion of new capacities. They include Nour Midelt 2 and Nour Midelt 3 in Marocco with total capacity of 400 MW, solar power plant (SPP) Gasfa Solar Project (130 MW) in Tunisia, SPP Bani Walid for 50 MW in Libya and solar park Bwengu for 50 MW in Malawi.

South Africa and Egypt will continue to be leaders in the industry: in the first case, it will be underpinned by major consumers striving for decreasing the dependency on outages in the common grid, and in the second – by the overall growth of demand for electricity, which will be to a great extent by low-carbon energy development. It is no coincidence that Egypt will be the second big producer of nuclear energy after South Africa due to commissioning El Dabaa nuclear power plant (NPP) comprising four generator units with total capacity of 4.8 GW.

Low trade barriers between China and African countries will be an important factor for the industry allowing for the African countries to purchase equipment at low prices – the same as they are in China. According to Global Solar Council, in the end of 2024, the annual imports of PV-modules into some African countries constituted between 20 MW and 80 MW. The volumes of imports will be growing, including due to high import duties on Chinese products in the USA and India, because Chinese manufacturers will be forced to ramp-up supplies to other countries and regions of the world including Africa.

However, high cost of capital will be playing a deterrent role together with unstable national currencies and unavailability of bank guarantees. According to Global Solar Council, subject to resolving these issues, Africa may become one of the fast-growing markets in the sphere of solar energy.